Haugesund 0-2 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 28 as Haugesund welcome Molde to Haugesund Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 games at Haugesund Stadion this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Molde have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haugesund at 0.70 PPG versus Molde's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Molde have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 9 of the last 9 encounters against Haugesund's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 9 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Molde trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 42% versus Molde 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 54% | Molde 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.39 xG and Molde 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.761 / defence 1.542 | Molde attack 0.873 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.787 / away 1.362. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Haugesund games / 57 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 29% | Draw 24% | Molde 47%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Molde 2.13. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 40% | Molde 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 29% | Draw 24% | Molde 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Haugesund 1.39 / Molde 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.761 / def 1.542 | Molde attack 0.873 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.787 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Molde (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Molde xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Molde kick off?
Haugesund vs Molde kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Haugesund 0 - 2 Molde.
Where is Haugesund vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Molde part of?
Haugesund vs Molde is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 29% chance of winning, Molde a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Haugesund and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
Record (9 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 9W.
What form are Haugesund and Molde in?
Haugesund (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Molde (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Molde's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
29%
3.49
24%
4.14
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.23
1.83
Molde xG
3.49
29%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
5%
21.83
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.83 for Molde, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund come into this having played 57 games, going 11W 10D 36L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Molde sit at 1.49 PPG from 57 outings (25W 10D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haugesund's home form reads 8W 3D 17L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.29 points per game from 28 outings (10W 6D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 1.82 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Molde in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 11W 10D 36L in their last 57 games (0.75 PPG), while Molde have gone 25W 10D 22L in their last 57 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 0.96 PPG; Molde away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Molde specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
0
Draws
10
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Molde have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 32%, Molde 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Haugesund) and 61% (Molde). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde in 36%; Haugesund have failed to score in 50% of games; Molde in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Molde?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Haugesund's recent matches and 46% of Molde's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Haugesund's matches and 61% of Molde's.
Do Haugesund and Molde tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Molde in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Molde cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 0-2 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.39 xG and Molde 1.83 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.76 / defence 1.54 against Molde attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 29% | Draw 24% | Molde 47%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 54%, Molde 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Molde (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.