Haugesund 0-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bodo/Glimt travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund in Eliteserien (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 December 2020 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Haugesund have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Haugesund's games and 90% of Bodo/Glimt's (from Haugesund's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 68%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Bodo/Glimt 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 57% | Bodo/Glimt 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.53 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.954 / defence 1.320 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.323 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.330. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.323, which lifts their away xG to 2.32. Haugesund's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodo/Glimt's projected output up. Data: built from Haugesund's last 28 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 28.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 24% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 55%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 4.10 | Draw 4.78 | Bodo/Glimt 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (1.53 / 2.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Haugesund's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haugesund 60% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 29 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 December 2020 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 24% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Haugesund 1.53 / Bodo/Glimt 2.32 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.954 / def 1.320 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.323 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
2.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Wednesday 9 December 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Haugesund 0 - 4 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 29) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 24% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 2.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haugesund's last 28 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 1-3 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
24%
4.10
21%
4.78
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
1 – 3
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.85
2.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.10
24%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
10%
10.20
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
2%
41.84
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Haugesund and 2.32 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 6D 12L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.68 PPG from 28 outings (24W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.39 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across their last 14 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.36 points per game from their last 14 away games (10W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 75%.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Haugesund (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haugesund
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 10W 6D 12L in their last 28 games (1.29 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 24W 3D 1L in their last 28 (2.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.50 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won Haugesund 0-4 Bodo/Glimt.
Haugesund's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
2
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 57%, Bodo/Glimt at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Haugesund and 93% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Haugesund's games and 86% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Haugesund's matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Haugesund's recent matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 0-4 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.53 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.32 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 2.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.95 / defence 1.32 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.32 / defence 1.18, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 24% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 55%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 57%, Bodo/Glimt 89%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.68 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.