Ham-Kam 0-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 39%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Rosenborg make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form

Ham-Kam (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Rosenborg have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rosenborg are 1.00 PPG clear of Ham-Kam over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Rosenborg edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Ham-Kam 0–1 Rosenborg — a Rosenborg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 44% versus Rosenborg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 51% | Rosenborg 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ham-Kam surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Rosenborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.37 xG and Rosenborg 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.880 / defence 0.876 | Rosenborg attack 1.145 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.289. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 57 games and Rosenborg's last 57.

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.57 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 30% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 80% (last 10 away games).

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