Ham-Kam 0-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 40%, yet in-form ODD Ballklubb provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ham-Kam host ODD Ballklubb at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ham-Kam at Briskeby Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour ODD Ballklubb — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ham-Kam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ham-Kam, 2 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 70% and ODD Ballklubb 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 53% | ODD Ballklubb 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.23 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.759 / defence 0.971 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.808 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.273. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Ham-Kam games / 41 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 32% | ODD Ballklubb 28%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | ODD Ballklubb 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ODD Ballklubb (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ham-Kam 60% | ODD Ballklubb 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 32% | ODD Ballklubb 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Ham-Kam 1.23 / ODD Ballklubb 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.759 / def 0.971 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.808 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.00
ODD Ballklubb xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 June 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Ham-Kam 0 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 40% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (2 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.17
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.23
1.00
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
8%
12.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.00 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ham-Kam come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 13D 11L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ham-Kam's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.33 points per game from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.43 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 6W 13D 11L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
ODD Ballklubb's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.20 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ham-Kam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
0
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb?
From 6 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2024, when Ham-Kam 1-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 60%, ODD Ballklubb 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ham-Kam) and 47% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 27% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 47% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 47% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ODD Ballklubb defy the odds to beat Ham-Kam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Ham-Kam 0-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.23 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.00 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.76 / defence 0.97 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 32% | ODD Ballklubb 28%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual ODD Ballklubb win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 53%, ODD Ballklubb 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.