Ham-Kam 4-0 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KFUM Oslo make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Ham-Kam (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ham-Kam at Briskeby Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KFUM Oslo have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, KFUM Oslo have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Ham-Kam's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of KFUM Oslo's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ham-Kam, 1 for KFUM Oslo and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
KFUM Oslo — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 48% versus KFUM Oslo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 50% | KFUM Oslo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.95 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.042 / defence 1.280 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.958 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.305. Data: 33 Ham-Kam games / 34 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 45% | Draw 23% | KFUM Oslo 31%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | KFUM Oslo 3.23. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 70% | KFUM Oslo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 45% | Draw 23% | KFUM Oslo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Ham-Kam 1.95 / KFUM Oslo 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.042 / def 1.280 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.958 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.60
KFUM Oslo xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Ham-Kam 4 - 0 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 45% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo?
Record (4 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 3 | KFUM Oslo 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 1.04x the league average against KFUM Oslo's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.96x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
45%
2.20
23%
4.32
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.54
1.60
KFUM Oslo xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
9%
10.90
4%
22.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.60 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ham-Kam come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 16D 26L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.20 PPG from 60 outings (17W 21D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.20 for KFUM Oslo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ham-Kam's home form reads 11W 7D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 18W 16D 26L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 17W 21D 22L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.33 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Ham-Kam 4-0 KFUM Oslo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 50%, KFUM Oslo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ham-Kam) and 40% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 27% of games; KFUM Oslo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play KFUM Oslo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 50% of KFUM Oslo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 40% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ham-Kam run riot with a 4-0 hammering of KFUM Oslo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat KFUM Oslo 4-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.95 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.60 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KFUM Oslo landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.04 / defence 1.28 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 45% | Draw 23% | KFUM Oslo 31%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 50%, KFUM Oslo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.17 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.