Fredrikstad 0-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 23 November 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fredrikstad have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fredrikstad at Fredrikstad Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 1.00 PPG clear of Fredrikstad in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.60 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fredrikstad register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Viking in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Fredrikstad 1W, Viking 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2025, ended 0–3 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Viking — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 43% versus Viking 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Viking 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.56 xG and Viking 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.936 / defence 0.977 | Viking attack 1.331 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.374. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Fredrikstad games / 58 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 34% | Draw 23% | Viking 43%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Viking 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 70% | Viking 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 34% | Draw 23% | Viking 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Fredrikstad 1.56 / Viking 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.936 / def 0.977 | Viking attack 1.331 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Viking (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Viking xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Viking kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Viking kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Fredrikstad 0 - 1 Viking.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Viking part of?
Fredrikstad vs Viking is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 34% chance of winning, Viking a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fredrikstad and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Viking?
Record (3 meetings): Fredrikstad 1W | Draws 1 | Viking 1W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Viking in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Viking (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fredrikstad's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.33x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
34%
2.97
23%
4.28
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
3.35
1.79
Viking xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
6%
17.71
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.79 for Viking, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Fredrikstad have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 25W 18D 15L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Viking's form line: 36W 14D 8L from 58 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fredrikstad.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fredrikstad have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (14W 10D 5L).
On the road, Viking have gone 15W 8D 6L from 29 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 69%.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Viking in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 25W 18D 15L in their last 58 games (1.60 PPG), while Viking have gone 36W 14D 8L in their last 58 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.79 PPG; Viking away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Viking in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Viking?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 1, Viking have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 48%, Viking 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Fredrikstad) and 72% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Fredrikstad's games and 76% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Fredrikstad's matches and 72% of Viking's.
Do Fredrikstad and Viking tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Viking in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Fredrikstad 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Fredrikstad 0-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.56 xG and Viking 1.79 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fredrikstad fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Viking attack 1.33 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 34% | Draw 23% | Viking 43%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Viking 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.60. Form held, and they took the win. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.