Fredrikstad 3-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fredrikstad have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fredrikstad are significantly better at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Viking (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 0.60 PPG clear of Fredrikstad in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Fredrikstad 0W, Viking 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Viking — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 36% versus Viking 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 41% | Viking 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.17 xG and Viking 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.721 / defence 0.971 | Viking attack 1.247 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.207. Fredrikstad's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Fredrikstad games / 52 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 30% | Draw 26% | Viking 44%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 30% | Viking 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 30% | Draw 26% | Viking 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Fredrikstad 1.17 / Viking 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.721 / def 0.971 | Viking attack 1.247 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Viking (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Viking xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Viking kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Viking kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Fredrikstad 3 - 2 Viking.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Viking part of?
Fredrikstad vs Viking is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 30% chance of winning, Viking a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fredrikstad and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Viking?
Record (1 meetings): Fredrikstad 0W | Draws 1 | Viking 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Viking in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Viking (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fredrikstad's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.25x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
30%
3.31
26%
3.86
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.63
1.46
Viking xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
7%
14.25
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.46 for Viking, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Fredrikstad have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 9W 7D 6L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking's form line: 11W 7D 4L from 22 games, 1.82 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.82 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fredrikstad have posted 1.70 PPG from 10 outings (4W 5D 1L).
On the road, Viking have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Viking's season.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.82 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Viking in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 9W 7D 6L in their last 22 games (1.55 PPG), while Viking have gone 11W 7D 4L in their last 22 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Viking away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.70 PPG; Viking away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Viking in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Viking?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 1, Viking have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 30%, Viking 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 70% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 60% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Fredrikstad's matches and 70% of Viking's.
Do Fredrikstad and Viking tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Viking in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fredrikstad defy the odds to beat Viking 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Viking 3-2 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.17 xG and Viking 1.46 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against Viking attack 1.25 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 30% | Draw 26% | Viking 44%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Fredrikstad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 41%, Viking 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.55 PPG, Viking 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fredrikstad win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.