Fredrikstad 1-1 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Fredrikstad Stadion to face Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fredrikstad have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad at Fredrikstad Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Tromso have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.50 for Tromso. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fredrikstad have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Tromso in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Tromso, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–4 with Tromso winning.
It is worth noting that Tromso have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 51% versus Tromso 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 45% | Tromso 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.67 xG and Tromso 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.778 / defence 0.902 | Tromso attack 1.253 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.775 / away 1.419. Fredrikstad's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Tromso bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Fredrikstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Tromso have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Fredrikstad games / 51 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 38% | Draw 26% | Tromso 36%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Tromso 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 70% | Tromso 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 38% | Draw 26% | Tromso 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Fredrikstad 1.67 / Tromso 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.778 / def 0.902 | Tromso attack 1.253 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.775 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Tromso xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Tromso kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Tromso kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Fredrikstad 1 - 1 Tromso.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Tromso part of?
Fredrikstad vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 38% chance of winning, Tromso a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fredrikstad and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Tromso?
Record (5 meetings): Fredrikstad 0W | Draws 2 | Tromso 3W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Tromso in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Tromso (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.78) and Tromso's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (1.25x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.86
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
3.27
1.60
Tromso xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.95
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.60 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 19W 13D 19L from 51 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso, meanwhile, have gone 29W 8D 14L across 51 games — 1.86 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tromso by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fredrikstad heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 12W 6D 7L from 25 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tromso's away record stands at 12W 4D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.76 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Tromso in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Tromso in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while Tromso have gone 29W 8D 14L in their last 51 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Tromso away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.68 PPG; Tromso away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Tromso in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 4-0 on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Fredrikstad
3
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Tromso?
From 6 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 0, Tromso have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 60%, Tromso 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fredrikstad) and 56% (Tromso).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fredrikstad's games and 60% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 56% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Tromso tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Tromso in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad and Tromso share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad and Tromso finished level at 1-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.67 xG and Tromso 1.60 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.78 / defence 0.90 against Tromso attack 1.25 / defence 1.21, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 38% | Draw 26% | Tromso 36%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 45%, Tromso 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.