Fredrikstad 1-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as Fredrikstad welcome Kristiansund BK to Fredrikstad Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Fredrikstad have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad at Fredrikstad Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fredrikstad register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Kristiansund BK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fredrikstad, 2 for Kristiansund BK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Kristiansund BK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fredrikstad trading profile (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 49% versus Kristiansund BK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 44% | Kristiansund BK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.58 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.849 / defence 0.950 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.712 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.354. Data: 46 Fredrikstad games / 45 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 53% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 22%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Kristiansund BK 4.55. Fredrikstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fredrikstad 70% | Kristiansund BK 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 53% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Fredrikstad 1.58 / Kristiansund BK 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.849 / def 0.950 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.712 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Kristiansund BK xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Fredrikstad 1 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 53% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK?
Record (5 meetings): Fredrikstad 2W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 2W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fredrikstad's attack at 0.85x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.96
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.49
0.92
Kristiansund BK xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
5%
22.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 0.92 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 16W 11D 18L from 45 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 22L across 45 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fredrikstad on 1.31 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 10W 5D 6L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 5W 4D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.09 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 16W 11D 18L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 13W 10D 22L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.67 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK?
From 6 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 3, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Fredrikstad 1-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 62%, Kristiansund BK 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Fredrikstad) and 52% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fredrikstad's games and 57% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 52% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Kristiansund BK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Kristiansund BK 1-0 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.58 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.92 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kristiansund BK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.71 / defence 1.13, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 53% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 22%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 44%, Kristiansund BK 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.31 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fredrikstad win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.