Brann 3-0 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Viking meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 June 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.42 xG and Viking 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.958 / defence 1.150 | Viking attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.457. Data: 1 Brann games / 1 Viking games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Brann 37% | Draw 25% | Viking 38%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Viking 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jun 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 37% | Draw 25% | Viking 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Brann 1.42 / Viking 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.958 / def 1.150 | Viking attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Viking (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Viking xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Viking kick off?
Brann vs Viking kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 21 June 2020 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Viking?
Brann 3 - 0 Viking.
Where is Brann vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Viking part of?
Brann vs Viking is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 37% chance of winning, Viking a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Brann and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Viking in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Brann's attack at 0.96x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Viking's attack (0.85x) against Brann's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
37%
2.68
25%
3.99
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Brann xG
Total xG
2.84
1.42
Viking xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Brann and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Brann and 1.42 for Viking, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Pre-Season
Viking
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Brann
2
Draws
7
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 1, Viking have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Viking 3-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Brann run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Viking 3-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.42 xG and Viking 1.42 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Viking landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Viking attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Brann 37% | Draw 25% | Viking 38%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.