Brann 1-1 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Start encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Start travel to Brann Stadion to take on Brann. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 July 2020, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brann stand at 4W 1D 3L from 8 Eliteserien matches — 1.62 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brann have posted 2W 0D 1L at Brann Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Start have recorded 0W 4D 4L from 8 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.88 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Start have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
On current form, Brann have the edge — a 1.12 PPG advantage (1.62 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Brann trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Start trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 50% versus Start 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 75% | Start 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.81 xG and Start 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.219 / defence 1.098 | Start attack 0.615 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.453. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Brann's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Brann games / 8 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 57% | Draw 23% | Start 20%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Start 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Brann (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Brann 67% | Start 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jul 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 57% | Draw 23% | Start 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Brann 1.81 / Start 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.219 / def 1.098 | Start attack 0.615 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Brann (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Brann xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Start xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Start kick off?
Brann vs Start kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 19 July 2020 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Start?
Brann 1 - 1 Start.
Where is Brann vs Start being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Start part of?
Brann vs Start is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 57% chance of winning, Start a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Start?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brann and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Start?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brann and Start in?
Brann (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Start (all comps): 0W-4D-4L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.88 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Brann's attack rating (1.22) and Start's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.36
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Brann xG
Total xG
2.79
0.98
Start xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
3%
30.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Brann and Start expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Brann and 0.98 for Start, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Brann's recent record stands at 4W 1D 3L from 8 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Start, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 4L across 8 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brann by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Start heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Brann have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Start's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brann are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Start are on 0.88 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Start in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Start have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Start away?
Brann's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.00 PPG; Start away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Brann's record when hosting Start specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Brann
2
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Start?
From 3 meetings on record, Brann have won 1, Start have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Start last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Brann 2-1 Start.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Start?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 67%, Start 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Brann and 33% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Start in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Start?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Brann's recent matches and 33% of Start's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Brann's matches and 33% of Start's.
Do Brann and Start tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Start in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann and Start share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Start finished level at 1-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.81 xG and Start 0.98 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brann fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.22 / defence 1.10 against Start attack 0.61 / defence 1.26, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 57% | Draw 23% | Start 20%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 75%, Start 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Start's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.