Brann 3-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Brann Stadion, Brann have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Brann have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with Rosenborg managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Brann and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Brann — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 73% versus Rosenborg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 80% | Rosenborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.941 / defence 1.218 | Rosenborg attack 0.861 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.285. Data: 45 Brann games / 44 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 40% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Rosenborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 90% | Rosenborg 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 40% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Brann 1.48 / Rosenborg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.941 / def 1.218 | Rosenborg attack 0.861 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Brann (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Rosenborg xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Rosenborg kick off?
Brann vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Rosenborg?
Brann 3 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Brann vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Rosenborg part of?
Brann vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 40% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Brann and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Rosenborg?
Record (9 meetings): Brann 5W | Draws 3 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Brann and Rosenborg in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.94) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.86x) against Brann's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
40%
2.48
25%
3.99
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Brann xG
Total xG
2.83
1.35
Rosenborg xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Brann and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Brann and 1.35 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 44 games, going 23W 6D 15L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.36 PPG from 44 outings (16W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Brann against 1.36 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 12W 3D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (5W 4D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 23W 6D 15L in their last 44 games (1.70 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Rosenborg away?
Brann's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.86 PPG; Rosenborg away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Brann or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
3
Draws
1
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Rosenborg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Brann 3-2 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Rosenborg?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 76%, Rosenborg 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Brann and 57% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 76% of Brann's recent matches and 33% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Brann's matches and 57% of Rosenborg's.
Do Brann and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Rosenborg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Rosenborg 3-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 1.35 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Rosenborg attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 40% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 35%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 80%, Rosenborg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.70 PPG, Rosenborg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.