Brann 3-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Brann at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Rosenborg encounter.

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Analysis

Rosenborg make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Brann's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Brann have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Rosenborg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Rosenborg have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Brann's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Rosenborg's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Brann's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) — Brann have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Rosenborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Brann edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2023, ended Brann 3–1 Rosenborg — a Brann win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Brann — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Rosenborg — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 57% and Rosenborg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 60% | Rosenborg 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.32 xG and Rosenborg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.085 / defence 0.820 | Rosenborg attack 1.076 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.394. Data: built from Brann's last 36 games and Rosenborg's last 35.

Result probabilities: Brann 39% | Draw 27% | Rosenborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.57 | Draw 3.75 | Rosenborg 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Brann's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brann 70% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 60% (last 10 away games).

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