Brann 1-3 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Haugesund travel to Brann Stadion to take on Brann. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brann — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Brann at 1.00 PPG versus Haugesund's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Brann register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Haugesund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Brann, 2 for Haugesund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2021, ended 0–1 with Haugesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 70% and Haugesund 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 59% | Haugesund 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.92 xG and Haugesund 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.897 / defence 1.160 | Haugesund attack 1.035 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.818 / away 1.231. Data: 46 Brann games / 46 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 46% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 28%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Haugesund 3.57. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brann 80% | Haugesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 46% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Brann 1.92 / Haugesund 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.897 / def 1.160 | Haugesund attack 1.035 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.818 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Brann (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Haugesund xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Haugesund kick off?
Brann vs Haugesund kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Brann 1 - 3 Haugesund.
Where is Brann vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Haugesund part of?
Brann vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 46% chance of winning, Haugesund a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Brann and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Brann and Haugesund in?
Brann (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.90) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.73
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Brann xG
Total xG
3.39
1.48
Haugesund xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
4%
24.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Brann and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Brann and 1.48 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 13D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 1.33 PPG from 46 outings (17W 10D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brann on 1.00 PPG, Haugesund on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brann's home form reads 6W 8D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (5W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.37 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 11W 13D 22L in their last 46 games (1.00 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Haugesund away?
Brann's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 1.13 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
1
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Haugesund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Haugesund?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brann at 83%, Haugesund at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Brann) and 56% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Brann's games and 56% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Brann's matches and 56% of Haugesund's.
Do Brann and Haugesund tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Brann 1-3 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.92 xG and Haugesund 1.48 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Brann fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Haugesund outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against Haugesund attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 46% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 28%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Haugesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 59%, Haugesund 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.00 PPG, Haugesund 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.