Bodo/Glimt 5-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Viking make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Monday 29 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Viking have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Viking away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 1.90 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Viking's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Viking in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 1 for Viking and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 5–4 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 58% and Viking 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 62% | Viking 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.07 xG and Viking 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.387 / defence 1.001 | Viking attack 1.012 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.187. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.387 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Bodo/Glimt games / 37 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 56% | Draw 23% | Viking 21%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Viking 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Viking 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 56% | Draw 23% | Viking 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.07 / Viking 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.387 / def 1.001 | Viking attack 1.012 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Viking xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Viking kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Bodo/Glimt 5 - 1 Viking.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Viking is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 56% chance of winning, Viking a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
Record (3 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 0 | Viking 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Viking in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Viking (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.39x the league average against Viking's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.01x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.29
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.27
1.20
Viking xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
3%
38.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.20 for Viking, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 60 games, going 36W 15D 9L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.53 PPG from 60 outings (26W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Viking — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 18W 10D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.40 points per game from 30 outings (12W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.80 scored and 1.68 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 75%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Viking in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 36W 15D 9L in their last 60 games (2.05 PPG), while Viking have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Viking away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.13 PPG; Viking away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Viking in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, Viking have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Viking?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Bodo/Glimt, 73% for Viking — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Bodo/Glimt and 73% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 73% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 73% of Viking's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Viking tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Viking in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Viking 5-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.07 xG and Viking 1.20 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.39 / defence 1.00 against Viking attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 56% | Draw 23% | Viking 21%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 62%, Viking 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.53. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.70 average — above their attacking norm. Viking (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.