Bodo/Glimt 4-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Aspmyra Stadion plays host to Bodo/Glimt versus Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 9 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 55% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 52% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.01 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.160 / defence 0.887 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.491 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.405. Sarpsborg 08 FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.491 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Bodo/Glimt games / 42 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 42% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 37%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.38 | Draw 4.76 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.87 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 42% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.01 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.160 / def 0.887 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.491 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 July 2022 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Bodo/Glimt 4 - 1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 42% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 37% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (1 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 1W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.49x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
42%
2.36
21%
4.75
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.87
1.86
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.71
Clean Sheet
16%
6.41
13%
7.44
Win to Nil
7%
15.13
5%
20.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.86 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 23W 13D 6L from 42 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 18L across 42 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 11W 8D 1L from 20 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 8W 1D 11L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.60 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 62%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 23W 13D 6L in their last 42 games (1.95 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 7D 18L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.05 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 6-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 60%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Bodo/Glimt and 70% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 65% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.01 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.86 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.16 / defence 0.89 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.49 / defence 1.11, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 42% | Draw 21% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 37%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 52%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.