Bodo/Glimt 1-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bodo/Glimt face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sandefjord travel to Aspmyra Stadion to take on Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Bodo/Glimt have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sandefjord stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Sandefjord have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Bodo/Glimt: 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Sandefjord, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Bodo/Glimt 4–3 Sandefjord — a Bodo/Glimt win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 5.5 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 65% and Sandefjord 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Sandefjord 73%). Note also that Sandefjord surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.08 xG and Sandefjord 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.278 / defence 0.693 | Sandefjord attack 0.795 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.534. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.278 — their 2.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Sandefjord's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bodo/Glimt's projected output up. Sandefjord's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Bodo/Glimt have a tight defence (rating 0.693), which is pulling Sandefjord's projected output down. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 40 games and Sandefjord's last 39.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 66% | Draw 20% | Sandefjord 14%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.52 | Draw 5.05 | Sandefjord 7.05. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Sandefjord 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 19 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 66% | Draw 20% | Sandefjord 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.08 / Sandefjord 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.278 / def 0.693 | Sandefjord attack 0.795 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Sandefjord xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Bodo/Glimt 1 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 19) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 66% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.28x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 40 games and Sandefjord's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.05
14%
7.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.93
0.85
Sandefjord xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
7.05
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
12%
8.03
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
2%
56.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.85 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 60 games, going 40W 10D 10L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 0.92 PPG from 60 outings (14W 13D 33L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 20W 8D 2L across their last 30 home games, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 30 away games (6W 2D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.73 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.50 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Sandefjord in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Sandefjord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 10D 10L in their last 60 games (2.17 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sandefjord away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.27 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 4-1 Sandefjord.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sandefjord have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 63%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Bodo/Glimt and 77% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 63% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 77% of Sandefjord's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 80% of Sandefjord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 19, as Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.08 xG and Sandefjord 0.85 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.28 / defence 0.69 against Sandefjord attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 66% | Draw 20% | Sandefjord 14%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 72%, Sandefjord 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.