Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 April 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.10 PPG lead over Rosenborg (2.50 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 70% and Rosenborg 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Rosenborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.31 xG and Rosenborg 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.362 / defence 0.892 | Rosenborg attack 0.913 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Bodo/Glimt games / 30 Rosenborg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 64% | Draw 21% | Rosenborg 16%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Rosenborg 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Rosenborg 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 64% | Draw 21% | Rosenborg 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.31 / Rosenborg 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.362 / def 0.892 | Rosenborg attack 0.913 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Rosenborg xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 64% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.36) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.91x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.85
16%
6.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.41
1.10
Rosenborg xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
6.34
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
10%
10.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
2%
64.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.10 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 26W 3D 1L from 30 games, a 2.70 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 8L across 30 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rosenborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 15W 0D 0L from 15 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 5W 4D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 games (2.70 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Rosenborg away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 24 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bodo/Glimt
5
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, Rosenborg have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 87% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 60%, Rosenborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Bodo/Glimt and 53% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rosenborg in 33%; Rosenborg in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 40% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 53% of Rosenborg's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.31 xG and Rosenborg 1.10 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.36 / defence 0.89 against Rosenborg attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 64% | Draw 21% | Rosenborg 16%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 90%, Rosenborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.