Bodo/Glimt 5-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Lillestrom.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lillestrom have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 1.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Lillestrom's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Lillestrom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Bodo/Glimt have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 7 meetings, with Lillestrom managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 5–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 58% versus Lillestrom 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 64% | Lillestrom 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.17 xG and Lillestrom 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.536 / defence 1.001 | Lillestrom attack 0.848 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.256. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.536 — their λ of 3.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lillestrom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Bodo/Glimt games / 59 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 78% | Draw 12% | Lillestrom 9%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.28 | Draw 8.33 | Lillestrom 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (3.17 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.24 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Lillestrom 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 78% | Draw 12% | Lillestrom 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 63% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.17 / Lillestrom 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.536 / def 1.001 | Lillestrom attack 0.848 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.17
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Lillestrom xG
63%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Bodo/Glimt 5 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 78% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 9% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
Record (7 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 6W | Draws 1 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.54) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 3.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.85x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 3-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
78%
1.28
12%
8.06
9%
10.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
3 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.17
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.24
1.07
Lillestrom xG
1.28
78%
Home win
8.06
12%
Draw
10.89
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
4%
23.78
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 3.17 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.07 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 39W 12D 8L from 59 games, a 2.19 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 20W 7D 32L across 59 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lillestrom heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 21W 6D 2L from 29 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 8W 3D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.36 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 39W 12D 8L in their last 59 games (2.19 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 20W 7D 32L in their last 59 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Lillestrom away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.38 PPG; Lillestrom away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 0-5 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, Lillestrom have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 55%, Lillestrom 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Bodo/Glimt and 62% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Lillestrom in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Lillestrom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 52% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 62% of Lillestrom's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Lillestrom 5-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 3.17 xG and Lillestrom 1.07 xG, a combined 4.24. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lillestrom outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.54 / defence 1.00 against Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 1.38, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 78% | Draw 12% | Lillestrom 9%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 64%, Lillestrom 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Lillestrom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.