Willem II 3-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 6 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 0W 0D 10L from 10 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Waalwijk are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Willem II 1W, Waalwijk 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 50% versus Waalwijk 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 60% | Waalwijk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 0.75 xG and Waalwijk 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.604 / defence 1.245 | Waalwijk attack 0.841 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.347. Willem II's attack strength of 0.604 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Willem II games / 20 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 19% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 52%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Waalwijk 1.92. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 40% | Waalwijk 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 19% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Willem II 0.75 / Waalwijk 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.604 / def 1.245 | Waalwijk attack 0.841 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Waalwijk xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Waalwijk kick off?
Willem II vs Waalwijk kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Waalwijk?
Willem II 3 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Willem II vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Waalwijk part of?
Willem II vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 19% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Willem II and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Willem II and Waalwijk in?
Willem II (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.60) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.84x) against Willem II's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
19%
5.21
29%
3.49
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.16
1.41
Waalwijk xG
5.21
19%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
5%
21.37
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 16.3 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Willem II and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Willem II and 1.41 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Willem II's recent record stands at 5W 3D 12L from 20 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 8L across 20 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Willem II against 1.10 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 3W 1D 6L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 1W 6D 3L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.15 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 5W 3D 12L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Waalwijk away?
Willem II's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.00 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 3-0 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Willem II
1
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Willem II have won 6, Waalwijk have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Willem II 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Waalwijk?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 40%, Waalwijk 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Willem II) and 50% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Willem II's games and 70% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Willem II's recent games and 50% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Waalwijk 3-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 0.75 xG and Waalwijk 1.41 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.60 / defence 1.25 against Waalwijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 19% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 52%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Willem II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 60%, Waalwijk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 0.90 PPG, Waalwijk 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.