Willem II 2-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 38%, yet in-form Heracles provide a compelling counter-argument — this Willem II vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Heracles at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heracles have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Heracles are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Willem II have won 0, Heracles 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–3 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Heracles in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 42% versus Heracles 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | Heracles 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.01 xG and Heracles 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.779 / defence 1.042 | Heracles attack 0.667 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.271. Willem II's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Willem II games / 31 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 38% | Draw 32% | Heracles 31%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Heracles 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heracles (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 30% | Heracles 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 38% | Draw 32% | Heracles 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Willem II 1.01 / Heracles 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.779 / def 1.042 | Heracles attack 0.667 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Willem II (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Heracles xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Heracles kick off?
Willem II vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Heracles?
Willem II 2 - 0 Heracles.
Where is Willem II vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Heracles part of?
Willem II vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 38% chance of winning, Heracles a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Willem II and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Heracles?
Record (1 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 0 | Heracles 1W.
What form are Willem II and Heracles in?
Willem II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Heracles (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.78x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
38%
2.66
32%
3.15
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Willem II xG
Total xG
1.90
0.88
Heracles xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Willem II and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Willem II and 0.88 for Heracles, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 31 games, going 7W 5D 19L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.10 PPG from 31 outings (9W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 0.84 PPG, Heracles on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 5W 3D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.53 points per game from 15 outings (2W 2D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.03 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Heracles in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 7W 5D 19L in their last 31 games (0.84 PPG), while Heracles have gone 9W 7D 15L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Heracles away?
Willem II's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.20 PPG; Heracles away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Willem II's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Willem II
2
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, Heracles have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 40%, Heracles 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Willem II) and 47% (Heracles).
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 47% of games; Heracles in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Willem II's recent matches and 47% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Willem II's recent games and 47% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and Heracles tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Heracles in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Heracles 2-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.01 xG and Heracles 0.88 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.78 / defence 1.04 against Heracles attack 0.67 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 38% | Draw 32% | Heracles 31%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, Heracles 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 0.84 PPG, Heracles 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.