Willem II 0-1 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GO Ahead Eagles at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees GO Ahead Eagles travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, GO Ahead Eagles have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, GO Ahead Eagles have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Willem II 1.20 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Willem II trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
GO Ahead Eagles trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 62% versus GO Ahead Eagles 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 69% | GO Ahead Eagles 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.17 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.727 / defence 1.282 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.691 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.384. Willem II's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. GO Ahead Eagles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Willem II games / 13 GO Ahead Eagles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 35% | Draw 28% | GO Ahead Eagles 38%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | GO Ahead Eagles 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GO Ahead Eagles are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GO Ahead Eagles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 50% | GO Ahead Eagles 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 35% | Draw 28% | GO Ahead Eagles 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Willem II 1.17 / GO Ahead Eagles 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.727 / def 1.282 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.691 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: GO Ahead Eagles (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.23
GO Ahead Eagles xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Willem II 0 - 1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 35% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GO Ahead Eagles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Willem II and GO Ahead Eagles will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and GO Ahead Eagles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and GO Ahead Eagles in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.73x the league average against GO Ahead Eagles's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GO Ahead Eagles's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GO Ahead Eagles Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.61
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.40
1.23
GO Ahead Eagles xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Willem II and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Willem II and 1.23 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 3D 5L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GO Ahead Eagles sit at 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (5W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.38 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, GO Ahead Eagles have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GO Ahead Eagles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 1.31 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or GO Ahead Eagles away?
Willem II's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.67 PPG; GO Ahead Eagles away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2022, when GO Ahead Eagles won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting GO Ahead Eagles specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Willem II
0
Draws
3
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and GO Ahead Eagles?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, GO Ahead Eagles have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when GO Ahead Eagles 1-0 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and GO Ahead Eagles?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 50%, GO Ahead Eagles 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Willem II) and 50% (GO Ahead Eagles). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II have failed to score in 33% of games; GO Ahead Eagles in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play GO Ahead Eagles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Willem II's recent matches and 50% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs GO Ahead Eagles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Willem II's matches and 50% of GO Ahead Eagles's.
Do Willem II and GO Ahead Eagles tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, GO Ahead Eagles in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GO Ahead Eagles edge out Willem II 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GO Ahead Eagles beat Willem II 0-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.17 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.23 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Willem II fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.73 / defence 1.28 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.69 / defence 1.26, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 35% | Draw 28% | GO Ahead Eagles 38%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 69%, GO Ahead Eagles 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.38 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GO Ahead Eagles win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.