Willem II 1-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Willem II face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feyenoord make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Willem II (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 4W 2D 4L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Feyenoord's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Feyenoord arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Willem II lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 60% versus Feyenoord 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 50% | Feyenoord 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.32 xG and Feyenoord 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.868 / defence 1.053 | Feyenoord attack 1.375 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.320. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Willem II games / 52 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 26% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 51%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Feyenoord 1.96. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 50% | Feyenoord 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 26% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Willem II 1.32 / Feyenoord 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.868 / def 1.053 | Feyenoord attack 1.375 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Feyenoord xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Feyenoord kick off?
Willem II vs Feyenoord kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Feyenoord?
Willem II 1 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is Willem II vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Feyenoord part of?
Willem II vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 26% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Willem II and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Feyenoord?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 1 | Feyenoord 2W.
What form are Willem II and Feyenoord in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.87x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.38x) against Willem II's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
26%
3.79
22%
4.49
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.23
1.91
Feyenoord xG
3.79
26%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
15%
6.76
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
4%
25.64
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Willem II and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Willem II and 1.91 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 28W 12D 12L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 36W 11D 5L from 52 games, 2.29 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Willem II.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Willem II have posted 2.04 PPG from 26 outings (16W 5D 5L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 18W 6D 2L from 26 away games — 2.31 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.56 scored and 0.94 conceded. Willem II's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 28W 12D 12L in their last 52 games (1.85 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 36W 11D 5L in their last 52 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.04 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Willem II or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 0-4 on 15 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Willem II
2
Draws
2
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Feyenoord?
From 4 meetings on record, Willem II have won 0, Feyenoord have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Willem II 1-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Willem II, 65% for Feyenoord — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Willem II and 69% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Willem II's games and 65% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Willem II's matches and 69% of Feyenoord's.
Do Willem II and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II and Feyenoord finished level at 1-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.32 xG and Feyenoord 1.91 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Feyenoord attack 1.38 / defence 0.89, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 26% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 51%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, Feyenoord 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.