Waalwijk 4-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host FC Volendam at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waalwijk at 1.20 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Waalwijk, 1 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC Volendam trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 64% and FC Volendam 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 58% | FC Volendam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.77 xG and FC Volendam 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.992 / defence 0.947 | FC Volendam attack 0.652 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.276. Data: 64 Waalwijk games / 30 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 59% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 15%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | FC Volendam 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 60% | FC Volendam 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 59% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Waalwijk 1.77 / FC Volendam 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.992 / def 0.947 | FC Volendam attack 0.652 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
0.79
FC Volendam xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs FC Volendam kick off?
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Waalwijk 4 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam part of?
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 59% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Waalwijk and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and FC Volendam in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waalwijk's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.2%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.84
15%
6.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.56
0.79
FC Volendam xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
6.80
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
2%
40.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Waalwijk and 0.79 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk come into this having played 64 games, going 19W 19D 26L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.56 PPG from 64 outings (28W 16D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.19 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Waalwijk's home form reads 14W 6D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 1.22 points per game from 32 outings (9W 12D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.69 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 67%.
Last 64 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 19W 19D 26L in their last 64 games (1.19 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 28W 16D 20L in their last 64 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or FC Volendam away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2023, when Waalwijk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
0
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, FC Volendam have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when FC Volendam 3-2 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 59%, FC Volendam 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Waalwijk) and 56% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Waalwijk's games and 59% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Waalwijk's matches and 56% of FC Volendam's.
Do Waalwijk and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat FC Volendam 4-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.77 xG and FC Volendam 0.79 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against FC Volendam attack 0.65 / defence 1.11, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 59% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 15%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 58%, FC Volendam 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.19 PPG, FC Volendam 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.