Waalwijk 2-3 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Ajax travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 6 December 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajax stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Waalwijk 1.30 PPG, Ajax 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ajax in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ajax, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Waalwijk.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with Ajax winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ajax have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ajax in-play tendencies (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 55% and Ajax 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 66% | Ajax 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.77 xG and Ajax 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.842 / defence 1.042 | Ajax attack 1.093 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.503. Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Waalwijk games / 47 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 38% | Draw 26% | Ajax 36%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Ajax 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 60% | Ajax 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 38% | Draw 26% | Ajax 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 70% | xG Waalwijk 1.77 / Ajax 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.842 / def 1.042 | Ajax attack 1.093 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Ajax xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Ajax kick off?
Waalwijk vs Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Waalwijk 2 - 3 Ajax.
Where is Waalwijk vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Ajax part of?
Waalwijk vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 38% chance of winning, Ajax a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Waalwijk and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Ajax?
Record (4 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 0 | Ajax 4W.
What form are Waalwijk and Ajax in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Ajax (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.84) and Ajax's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.89
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.48
1.71
Ajax xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
7%
14.40
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.71 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 15W 9D 23L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax's form line: 25W 12D 10L from 47 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajax are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L).
On the road, Ajax have gone 11W 7D 6L from 24 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.43 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Ajax in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 15W 9D 23L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while Ajax have gone 25W 12D 10L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.54 PPG; Ajax away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Ajax runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajax have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Ajax won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
0
Draws
8
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Ajax have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Ajax 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 62%, Ajax at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Waalwijk and 75% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Waalwijk's games and 75% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Waalwijk's matches and 75% of Ajax's.
Do Waalwijk and Ajax tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Ajax in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajax defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Waalwijk 2-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.77 xG and Ajax 1.71 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ajax outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Ajax attack 1.09 / defence 1.26, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 38% | Draw 26% | Ajax 36%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 66%, Ajax 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.