Vitesse 0-5 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PSV Eindhoven at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host PSV Eindhoven at GelreDome in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at GelreDome this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, PSV Eindhoven have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PSV Eindhoven — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vitesse register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, PSV Eindhoven in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vitesse have won 0, PSV Eindhoven 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vitesse in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
PSV Eindhoven in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 52% versus PSV Eindhoven 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 62% | PSV Eindhoven 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.06 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.832 / defence 1.236 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.087 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.356. Data: 21 Vitesse games / 21 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 22% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 55%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | PSV Eindhoven 1.82. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 70% | PSV Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 22% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Vitesse 1.06 / PSV Eindhoven 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.832 / def 1.236 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.087 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.82
PSV Eindhoven xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven?
Vitesse 0 - 5 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 22% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vitesse and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Vitesse and PSV Eindhoven in?
Vitesse (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.83) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
22%
4.58
23%
4.36
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.88
1.82
PSV Eindhoven xG
4.58
22%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
4%
28.29
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Vitesse and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.82 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse come into this having played 21 games, going 11W 3D 7L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.19 PPG from 21 outings (15W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vitesse's home form reads 4W 2D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.20 points per game from 10 outings (7W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 11W 3D 7L in their last 21 games (1.71 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 15W 1D 5L in their last 21 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.40 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and PSV Eindhoven runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when PSV Eindhoven won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vitesse
1
Draws
5
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and PSV Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when PSV Eindhoven 6-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vitesse at 70%, PSV Eindhoven at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Vitesse and 70% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Vitesse's games and 60% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Vitesse's matches and 70% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Vitesse and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Vitesse 0-5 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.06 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.82 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 22% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 55%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 62%, PSV Eindhoven 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.71. Form held, and they took the win. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.