Utrecht 2-0 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Utrecht at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Utrecht and Fortuna Sittard meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Utrecht (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Utrecht's home record at Stadion Galgenwaard: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Utrecht's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Fortuna Sittard's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Utrecht, 3 for Fortuna Sittard and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utrecht 61% and Fortuna Sittard 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 55% | Fortuna Sittard 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.88 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.010 / defence 0.757 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.985 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.289. Utrecht's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Utrecht games / 67 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 56% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 16%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Fortuna Sittard 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Utrecht (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 50% | Fortuna Sittard 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 56% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Utrecht 1.88 / Fortuna Sittard 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.010 / def 0.757 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.985 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Fortuna Sittard xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?
Utrecht 2 - 0 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 56% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Utrecht and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (9 meetings): Utrecht 2W | Draws 4 | Fortuna Sittard 3W.
What form are Utrecht and Fortuna Sittard in?
Utrecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (1.01) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.98x) against Utrecht's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
56%
1.79
29%
3.50
16%
6.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.84
0.96
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
6.37
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
41.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Utrecht and 0.96 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utrecht's recent record stands at 32W 18D 17L from 67 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 22W 14D 31L across 67 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Utrecht by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 18W 6D 9L from 33 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 7W 9D 17L across 33 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.28 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Fortuna Sittard in 61%.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Current Season
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 32W 18D 17L in their last 67 games (1.70 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 22W 14D 31L in their last 67 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Utrecht's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.82 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 4-0 on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Utrecht
4
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Utrecht 2-0 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 48%, Fortuna Sittard 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Utrecht) and 58% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Utrecht's games and 70% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Utrecht's recent games and 58% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Fortuna Sittard 2-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.88 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.96 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.76 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 56% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Sittard 16%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 55%, Fortuna Sittard 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.