Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (34%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Rotterdam face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Feyenoord travel to Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2026, 10:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sparta Rotterdam haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's home record at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sparta Rotterdam are significantly better at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Feyenoord haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Feyenoord, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Sparta Rotterdam.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 4–3 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 44% versus Feyenoord 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 53% | Feyenoord 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.42 xG and Feyenoord 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.953 / defence 1.024 | Feyenoord attack 1.021 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.370. Data: 34 Sparta Rotterdam games / 34 Feyenoord games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 34% | Draw 32% | Feyenoord 34%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Feyenoord 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sparta Rotterdam 40% | Feyenoord 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 10:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 34% | Draw 32% | Feyenoord 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 61% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.42 / Feyenoord 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.953 / def 1.024 | Feyenoord attack 1.021 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Feyenoord xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord kicked off at 10:15 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 34% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
Record (9 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 1W | Draws 2 | Feyenoord 6W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.13
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.86
1.43
Feyenoord xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.42
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.43 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 12W 7D 15L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. Sparta Rotterdam haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Feyenoord's form line: 19W 8D 7L from 34 games, 1.91 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. Feyenoord haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 8W 5D 4L from 17 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.06 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Pre-Season
Feyenoord
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 12W 7D 15L in their last 34 games (1.26 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 19W 8D 7L in their last 34 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.35 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 47%, Feyenoord 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 59% (Feyenoord).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 47% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 59% of Feyenoord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Sparta Rotterdam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 at Sparta Stadium Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.42 xG and Feyenoord 1.43 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Feyenoord attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 34% | Draw 32% | Feyenoord 34%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Feyenoord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 53%, Feyenoord 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Feyenoord's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.