Sparta Rotterdam 4-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sparta Rotterdam face Excelsior.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel plays host to Sparta Rotterdam versus Excelsior in Eredivisie (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Excelsior's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Excelsior away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sparta Rotterdam edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Excelsior — a Excelsior win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sparta Rotterdam half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 49% versus Excelsior 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 56% | Excelsior 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.56 xG and Excelsior 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.770 / defence 1.145 | Excelsior attack 1.022 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.423. Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.56. Excelsior's defence rating of 1.269 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output up. Data: built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 55 games and Excelsior's last 55.
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 34% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 38%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.94 | Draw 3.61 | Excelsior 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.66) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 home games and Excelsior's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Rotterdam 50% (last 10 home games) | Excelsior 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 22 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 34% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.56 / Excelsior 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.770 / def 1.145 | Excelsior attack 1.022 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Excelsior xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior FAQs
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior kicked off at 17:45 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Sparta Rotterdam 4 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 34% chance of winning, Excelsior a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.77x the league average against Excelsior's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (1.02x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 55 games and Excelsior's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
34%
2.94
28%
3.61
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.23
1.66
Excelsior xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
6%
15.54
8%
12.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.66 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 24W 13D 18L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Excelsior's form line: 13W 14D 28L from 55 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Sparta Rotterdam are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 27 home games (12W 6D 9L).
On the road, Excelsior have gone 3W 6D 18L from their last 27 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.18 scored and 2.04 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam (Home) vs Excelsior (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 24W 13D 18L in their last 55 games (1.55 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 13W 14D 28L in their last 55 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Excelsior away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.56 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Excelsior in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Excelsior have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won Excelsior 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Sparta Rotterdam
0
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, Excelsior have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Excelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Rotterdam see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 52%, Excelsior 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Sparta Rotterdam and 67% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 26% of games; Excelsior in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 52% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 67% of Excelsior's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 70% of Excelsior's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Excelsior 4-2 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.56 xG and Excelsior 1.66 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.77 / defence 1.15 against Excelsior attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 34% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 38%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sparta Rotterdam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 56%, Excelsior 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Excelsior's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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