Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sparta Rotterdam register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AZ Alkmaar in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, AZ Alkmaar 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Rotterdam 54% and AZ Alkmaar 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 48% | AZ Alkmaar 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.17 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.915 / defence 1.218 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.025 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.549. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Sparta Rotterdam games / 44 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 23% | Draw 22% | AZ Alkmaar 55%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | AZ Alkmaar 1.82. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 60% | AZ Alkmaar 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 23% | Draw 22% | AZ Alkmaar 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.17 / AZ Alkmaar 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.915 / def 1.218 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.025 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.93
AZ Alkmaar xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 23% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (8 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 2W | Draws 2 | AZ Alkmaar 4W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (0.92) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
23%
4.37
22%
4.53
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.11
1.93
AZ Alkmaar xG
4.37
23%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
14%
6.91
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
3%
30.19
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.93 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 14W 13D 17L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 22W 12D 10L from 44 games, 1.77 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 10W 6D 5L from 21 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.95 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 22W 12D 10L in their last 44 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.14 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
6
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 62%, AZ Alkmaar 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 67% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 57% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 67% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Sparta Rotterdam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.17 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.93 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.2 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.92 / defence 1.22 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.02 / defence 0.72, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 23% | Draw 22% | AZ Alkmaar 55%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 48%, AZ Alkmaar 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.