Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam host Almere City FC at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 15:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sparta Rotterdam at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Almere City FC — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Almere City FC away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sparta Rotterdam are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 46% versus Almere City FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 56% | Almere City FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.53 xG and Almere City FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.910 / defence 0.927 | Almere City FC attack 0.761 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.345. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 44 games and Almere City FC's last 10.
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 47% | Draw 33% | Almere City FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.12 | Draw 3.06 | Almere City FC 5.00. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sparta Rotterdam 40% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 11 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 47% | Draw 33% | Almere City FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.53 / Almere City FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.910 / def 0.927 | Almere City FC attack 0.761 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Almere City FC xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 11) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 47% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 44 games and Almere City FC's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
47%
2.12
33%
3.06
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.48
0.95
Almere City FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
23.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.95 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 22W 12D 14L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Almere City FC's form line: 24W 12D 12L from 48 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.62 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 24 home games (12W 5D 7L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 13W 6D 5L from their last 24 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Almere City FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 22W 12D 14L in their last 48 games (1.62 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 24W 12D 12L in their last 48 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.71 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 May 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam won Almere City FC 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
1
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Almere City FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, Almere City FC have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2025: Almere City FC 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Almere City FC?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sparta Rotterdam see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 50%, Almere City FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 33% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Rotterdam and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 46% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sparta Rotterdam and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 33% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 71% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.53 xG and Almere City FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Almere City FC outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.91 / defence 0.93 against Almere City FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 47% | Draw 33% | Almere City FC 20%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 56%, Almere City FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Almere City FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.62 PPG, Almere City FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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