PSV Eindhoven 3-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PSV Eindhoven face FC Volendam.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven host FC Volendam at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Philips Stadion, PSV Eindhoven have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, PSV Eindhoven have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. PSV Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Volendam in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of PSV Eindhoven: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for FC Volendam, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 5–1 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PSV Eindhoven and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 5.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 68% and FC Volendam 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 83% | FC Volendam 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 3.01 xG and FC Volendam 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.411 / defence 1.094 | FC Volendam attack 0.713 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.454. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — their λ of 3.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 PSV Eindhoven games / 13 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 14% | FC Volendam 11%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.33 | Draw 7.14 | FC Volendam 9.09. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (75%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (3.01 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 70% | FC Volendam 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 14% | FC Volendam 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 64% | xG PSV Eindhoven 3.01 / FC Volendam 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.411 / def 1.094 | FC Volendam attack 0.713 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.01
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.13
FC Volendam xG
64%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
PSV Eindhoven 3 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 75% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 4W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.41x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 3.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus PSV Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 3-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
75%
1.33
14%
7.25
11%
9.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.01
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.14
1.13
FC Volendam xG
1.33
75%
Home win
7.25
14%
Draw
9.00
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
5%
20.29
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
1%
182.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 3.01 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.13 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 36W 5D 6L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 28W 9D 10L from 47 games, 1.98 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Venue Form
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.39 PPG from 23 outings (17W 4D 2L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 11W 6D 6L from 23 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 3.06 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.04 scored and 1.32 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 68%.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 36W 5D 6L in their last 47 games (2.40 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 28W 9D 10L in their last 47 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or FC Volendam away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.39 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when PSV Eindhoven won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PSV Eindhoven's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 5, FC Volendam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC Volendam 2-1 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — PSV Eindhoven at 65%, FC Volendam at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for PSV Eindhoven and 70% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 70% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 70% of FC Volendam's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat FC Volendam 3-0 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 3.01 xG and FC Volendam 1.13 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.41 / defence 1.09 against FC Volendam attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 14% | FC Volendam 11%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 83%, FC Volendam 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.