PSV Eindhoven 5-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates PSV Eindhoven at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PSV Eindhoven face AZ Alkmaar.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

PSV Eindhoven and AZ Alkmaar meet at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 18:45 UK time.

Current Form

PSV Eindhoven's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

PSV Eindhoven's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — PSV Eindhoven are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

AZ Alkmaar (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, AZ Alkmaar have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for PSV Eindhoven against 1.80 for AZ Alkmaar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, PSV Eindhoven edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended PSV Eindhoven 4–0 AZ Alkmaar — a PSV Eindhoven win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 52% versus AZ Alkmaar 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 69% | AZ Alkmaar 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 1.98 xG and AZ Alkmaar 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.251 / defence 0.697 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.963 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.335. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack rating of 1.251 — their 1.98 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. PSV Eindhoven have a tight defence (rating 0.697), which is pulling AZ Alkmaar's projected output down. Data: built from PSV Eindhoven's last 62 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 62.

Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 61% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 14%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.65 | Draw 3.99 | AZ Alkmaar 6.99. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (61%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PSV Eindhoven's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PSV Eindhoven 50% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 60% (last 10 away games).

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