PEC Zwolle 2-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waalwijk make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.10 for Waalwijk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for Waalwijk and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 61% versus Waalwijk 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 54% | Waalwijk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG and Waalwijk 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.905 / defence 0.982 | Waalwijk attack 0.997 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.340. Data: 60 PEC Zwolle games / 59 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 31%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Waalwijk 3.23. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 50% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.63 / Waalwijk 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.905 / def 0.982 | Waalwijk attack 0.997 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Waalwijk xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 45% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk?
Record (5 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 3 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (1.00x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
45%
2.23
25%
4.05
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.95
1.31
Waalwijk xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.31 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 17D 27L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.78 PPG from 59 outings (11W 13D 35L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 0.78 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 10W 5D 14L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.59 points per game from 29 outings (4W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.19 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 15W 17D 27L in their last 59 games (1.05 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 11W 13D 35L in their last 59 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Waalwijk away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.21 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Waalwijk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when PEC Zwolle 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 59%, Waalwijk 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (PEC Zwolle) and 59% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of PEC Zwolle's games and 59% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 59% of Waalwijk's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Waalwijk tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Waalwijk 2-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG and Waalwijk 1.31 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Waalwijk attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 31%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 54%, Waalwijk 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.05 PPG, Waalwijk 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.