PEC Zwolle 0-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 1 as PEC Zwolle welcome Vitesse to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.00 xG and Vitesse 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Vitesse attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.010. Data: 0 PEC Zwolle games / 0 Vitesse games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 35% | Draw 31% | Vitesse 34%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Vitesse 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 35% | Draw 31% | Vitesse 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.00 / Vitesse 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Vitesse attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Vitesse xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 35% chance of winning, Vitesse a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Vitesse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Vitesse in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.85) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.23
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
1.99
0.99
Vitesse xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.99 for Vitesse, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Pre-Season
Vitesse
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Vitesse have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat PEC Zwolle 0-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.00 xG and Vitesse 0.99 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Vitesse attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 35% | Draw 31% | Vitesse 34%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.