PEC Zwolle 1-1 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 47%, yet the head-to-head data favours Twente — this PEC Zwolle vs Twente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Twente in Eredivisie (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Twente's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Twente have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for PEC Zwolle, 1.30 for Twente — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Twente, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended PEC Zwolle 1–1 Twente — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Twente have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Twente half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 61% and Twente 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 55% | Twente 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PEC Zwolle surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Twente have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.68 xG and Twente 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.923 / defence 0.895 | Twente attack 1.067 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.318. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 62 games and Twente's last 62.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 47% | Draw 25% | Twente 28%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.14 | Draw 3.95 | Twente 3.57. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and Twente's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 50% (last 10 home games) | Twente 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 29 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 47% | Draw 25% | Twente 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG PEC Zwolle 1.68 / Twente 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.923 / def 0.895 | Twente attack 1.067 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Twente xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Twente FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Twente kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Twente kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 13 April 2025 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Twente?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 1 Twente.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Twente part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Twente is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 29) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 47% chance of winning, Twente a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Twente will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PEC Zwolle vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Twente's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Twente's attack (1.07x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 62 games and Twente's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
47%
2.14
25%
3.95
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.94
1.26
Twente xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
5%
19.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Twente Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.26 for Twente, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 62 games, going 16W 18D 28L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Twente sit at 1.87 PPG from 62 outings (34W 14D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Twente carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 11W 5D 15L across their last 31 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Twente have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 31 away games (11W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Twente's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.98 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
Twente
Current Season
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs Twente (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
Twente
Current Season
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Twente Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and Twente in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 16W 18D 28L in their last 62 games (1.06 PPG), while Twente have gone 34W 14D 14L in their last 62 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Twente away?
Twente's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.23 PPG; Twente away: 1.35 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Twente in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between PEC Zwolle and Twente, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Twente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
5
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Twente H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Twente?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Twente have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Twente last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Twente 3-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 58%, Twente 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for PEC Zwolle and 71% for Twente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Twente Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and Twente matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of PEC Zwolle's games and 68% of Twente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are PEC Zwolle and Twente matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 71% of Twente's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Twente matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 74% of Twente's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and Twente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 29, as PEC Zwolle and Twente drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.68 xG and Twente 1.26 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.92 / defence 0.90 against Twente attack 1.07 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 47% | Draw 25% | Twente 28%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 55%, Twente 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Twente's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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