PEC Zwolle 4-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and Telstar meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 6W 1D 3L at MAC³PARK Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Telstar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Telstar have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 0.90 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours PEC Zwolle, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Telstar — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with PEC Zwolle winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PEC Zwolle and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Telstar — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 59% versus Telstar 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 52% | Telstar 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.45 xG and Telstar 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.966 / defence 0.846 | Telstar attack 0.725 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.469. Data: 54 PEC Zwolle games / 20 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 50% | Draw 27% | Telstar 23%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Telstar 4.35. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 30% | Telstar 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Telstar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 50% | Draw 27% | Telstar 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.45 / Telstar 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.966 / def 0.846 | Telstar attack 0.725 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Telstar xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Telstar kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Telstar kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Telstar?
PEC Zwolle 4 - 1 Telstar.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Telstar part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 50% chance of winning, Telstar a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Telstar?
Record (3 meetings): PEC Zwolle 3W | Draws 0 | Telstar 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Telstar in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Telstar (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.97x the league average against Telstar's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.72x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.74
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.35
0.90
Telstar xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.90 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 16D 22L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 21W 14D 19L from 54 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.43 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (12W 5D 9L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 8W 6D 12L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.63 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Telstar in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 16W 16D 22L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while Telstar have gone 21W 14D 19L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Telstar away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.58 PPG; Telstar away: 1.15 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Telstar in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
PEC Zwolle have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PEC Zwolle won 0-5 on 12 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
0
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Telstar?
From 4 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 4, Telstar have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when PEC Zwolle 4-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Telstar?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 46%, Telstar 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (PEC Zwolle) and 46% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Telstar in 31%; Telstar in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 42% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 46% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Telstar tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Telstar in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Telstar 4-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.45 xG and Telstar 0.90 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Telstar attack 0.72 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 50% | Draw 27% | Telstar 23%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 52%, Telstar 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.19 PPG, Telstar 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.