NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as NEC Nijmegen welcome Heracles to Goffertstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NEC Nijmegen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Goffertstadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heracles have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
NEC Nijmegen are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for NEC Nijmegen, 1 for Heracles and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Heracles in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 62% versus Heracles 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 67% | Heracles 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.75 xG and Heracles 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.940 / defence 0.989 | Heracles attack 0.680 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.253. Data: 39 NEC Nijmegen games / 39 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 56% | Draw 29% | Heracles 15%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Heracles 6.67. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Heracles 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 56% | Draw 29% | Heracles 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.75 / Heracles 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.940 / def 0.989 | Heracles attack 0.680 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Heracles xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 2 Heracles.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 56% chance of winning, Heracles a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles?
Record (4 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 2W | Draws 1 | Heracles 1W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Heracles (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (0.94) and Heracles's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
56%
1.79
29%
3.40
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.59
0.84
Heracles xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
3%
38.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.84 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 16W 11D 12L from 39 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 21L across 39 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours NEC Nijmegen by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 9W 4D 6L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 3W 3D 13L across 19 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.10 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 16W 11D 12L in their last 39 games (1.51 PPG), while Heracles have gone 9W 9D 21L in their last 39 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Heracles away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.63 PPG; Heracles away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, Heracles have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 63%, Heracles 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for NEC Nijmegen and 68% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Heracles in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 42% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 68% of Heracles's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Heracles tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Heracles in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heracles defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat NEC Nijmegen 1-2 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.75 xG and Heracles 0.84 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Heracles outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Heracles attack 0.68 / defence 1.07, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 56% | Draw 29% | Heracles 15%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Heracles win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 67%, Heracles 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.