NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen host Heerenveen at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Goffertstadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goffertstadion.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
NEC Nijmegen are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 36% versus Heerenveen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 54% | Heerenveen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.05 xG and Heerenveen 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.757 / defence 0.975 | Heerenveen attack 0.768 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.345. NEC Nijmegen's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 NEC Nijmegen games / 11 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 36% | Draw 30% | Heerenveen 34%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Heerenveen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 0% | Heerenveen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 36% | Draw 30% | Heerenveen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.05 / Heerenveen 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.757 / def 0.975 | Heerenveen attack 0.768 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Heerenveen xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 36% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.30
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.06
1.01
Heerenveen xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.01 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 5W 2D 4L from 11 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 6L across 11 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.55 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.18 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen in 64%.
Defensively: NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 4W 1D 6L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Heerenveen away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.40 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.40 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Heerenveen been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Heerenveen in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
NEC Nijmegen
4
Draws
3
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, Heerenveen have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Heerenveen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — NEC Nijmegen 0% BTTS, Heerenveen 60%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (NEC Nijmegen) and 40% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Heerenveen in 40%; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 60% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 40% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen finished level at 1-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.05 xG and Heerenveen 1.01 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.76 / defence 0.97 against Heerenveen attack 0.77 / defence 1.00, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 36% | Draw 30% | Heerenveen 34%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 54%, Heerenveen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Heerenveen's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.55 PPG, Heerenveen 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.