NEC Nijmegen 6-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Groningen travel to Goffertstadion to take on NEC Nijmegen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
NEC Nijmegen — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 3W 2D 5L at Goffertstadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEC Nijmegen at 1.00 PPG versus Groningen's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NEC Nijmegen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Groningen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 1 for Groningen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Groningen trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 60% versus Groningen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 64% | Groningen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.61 xG and Groningen 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.909 / defence 0.916 | Groningen attack 0.783 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.237. Data: 44 NEC Nijmegen games / 10 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 54% | Draw 25% | Groningen 21%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Groningen 4.76. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: NEC Nijmegen 70% | Groningen 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 54% | Draw 25% | Groningen 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.61 / Groningen 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 0.909 / def 0.916 | Groningen attack 0.783 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Groningen xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen 6 - 0 Groningen.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 54% chance of winning, Groningen a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
Record (4 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 2W | Draws 1 | Groningen 1W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Groningen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NEC Nijmegen's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.01
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.50
0.89
Groningen xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
4%
24.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.89 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 17W 12D 16L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 23W 11D 11L from 45 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NEC Nijmegen on 1.40 PPG, Groningen on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (10W 5D 8L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 11W 5D 7L from 23 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.73 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Groningen in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Groningen in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Groningen have gone 23W 11D 11L in their last 45 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.52 PPG; Groningen away: 1.65 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Groningen in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, Groningen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Groningen 2-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 65%, Groningen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for NEC Nijmegen and 52% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Groningen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 56% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 52% of Groningen's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Groningen tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Groningen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Groningen 6-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.61 xG and Groningen 0.89 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Groningen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 0.91 / defence 0.92 against Groningen attack 0.78 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 54% | Draw 25% | Groningen 21%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 64%, Groningen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.40 PPG, Groningen 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.