NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours NEC Nijmegen (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as NEC Nijmegen face Fortuna Sittard.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goffertstadion plays host to NEC Nijmegen versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Goffertstadion, NEC Nijmegen have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward NEC Nijmegen. A 0.80 PPG lead over Fortuna Sittard (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — NEC Nijmegen register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Fortuna Sittard in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — NEC Nijmegen lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (58 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (58 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 62% versus Fortuna Sittard 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 67% | Fortuna Sittard 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.42 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.221 / defence 1.105 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.940 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.368. Data: 58 NEC Nijmegen games / 58 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Draw 19% | Fortuna Sittard 21%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | Fortuna Sittard 4.76. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 80% | Fortuna Sittard 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Draw 19% | Fortuna Sittard 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 69% | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.42 / Fortuna Sittard 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.221 / def 1.105 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.940 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Fortuna Sittard xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
NEC Nijmegen 2 - 3 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 60% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (9 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 4W | Draws 3 | Fortuna Sittard 2W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.22) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.94x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
60%
1.68
19%
5.24
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.84
1.42
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.68
60%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
9%
11.29
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
2%
52.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.42 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 24W 14D 20L from 58 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 26L across 58 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for NEC Nijmegen against 1.21 for Fortuna Sittard. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 13W 8D 6L from 27 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 4W 9D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.26 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 19W 13D 26L in their last 58 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.74 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 4-1 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
NEC Nijmegen
3
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for NEC Nijmegen, 74% for Fortuna Sittard — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for NEC Nijmegen and 59% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 74% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 59% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat NEC Nijmegen 2-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.42 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.42 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.22 / defence 1.10 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 60% | Draw 19% | Fortuna Sittard 21%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Sittard win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 67%, Fortuna Sittard 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.48 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.