NAC Breda 0-1 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven meet at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
NAC Breda's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 10W 0D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 2.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PSV Eindhoven are 1.60 PPG clear of NAC Breda in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, PSV Eindhoven in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — NAC Breda lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 2–3 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
PSV Eindhoven — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 61% and PSV Eindhoven 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 56% | PSV Eindhoven 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.15 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.805 / defence 0.928 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.777 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.473. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.777 — the away xG of 2.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 NAC Breda games / 46 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 16% | Draw 18% | PSV Eindhoven 66%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 6.25 | Draw 5.56 | PSV Eindhoven 1.52. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 80% | PSV Eindhoven 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 16% | Draw 18% | PSV Eindhoven 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG NAC Breda 1.15 / PSV Eindhoven 2.43 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.805 / def 0.928 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.777 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
2.43
PSV Eindhoven xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven?
NAC Breda 0 - 1 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 16% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 66% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (2 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.81) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.78x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 2.43.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
16%
6.10
18%
5.54
66%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.58
2.43
PSV Eindhoven xG
6.10
16%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
1.53
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
9%
11.34
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
1%
69.12
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for NAC Breda and 2.43 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 12D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PSV Eindhoven sit at 2.39 PPG from 46 outings (35W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.41 PPG clear of NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
NAC Breda's home form reads 9W 7D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PSV Eindhoven have taken 2.39 points per game from 23 outings (18W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 70%.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 11W 12D 23L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 35W 5D 6L in their last 46 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.48 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-3 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for NAC Breda, 74% for PSV Eindhoven — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for NAC Breda and 87% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NAC Breda's games and 74% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of NAC Breda's matches and 87% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do NAC Breda and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out NAC Breda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat NAC Breda 0-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.15 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.43 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PSV Eindhoven landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.81 / defence 0.93 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.78 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 16% | Draw 18% | PSV Eindhoven 66%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 56%, PSV Eindhoven 85%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.