Heracles 0-5 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Heracles face Waalwijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Heracles welcome Waalwijk to Erve Asito in Eredivisie (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 12:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Heracles have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Heracles's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Waalwijk — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waalwijk away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heracles at 1.00 PPG versus Waalwijk's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Heracles have won 2, Waalwijk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Jan 2024, ended Heracles 2–1 Waalwijk — a Heracles win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 54% versus Waalwijk 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 71% | Waalwijk 60%). Note also that Waalwijk surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Heracles recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.94 xG and Waalwijk 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.005 / defence 1.212 | Waalwijk attack 0.814 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.412. Heracles's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waalwijk's projected output up. Data: built from Heracles's last 31 games and Waalwijk's last 65.
Result probabilities: Heracles 49% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 26%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.06 | Draw 3.92 | Waalwijk 3.87. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.94 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Heracles's last 10 home games and Waalwijk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Heracles 40% (last 10 home games) | Waalwijk 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 32 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 49% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Heracles 1.94 / Waalwijk 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.005 / def 1.212 | Waalwijk attack 0.814 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Heracles (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Waalwijk xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Heracles vs Waalwijk FAQs
What time does Heracles vs Waalwijk kick off?
Heracles vs Waalwijk kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Heracles 0 - 5 Waalwijk.
Where is Heracles vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Waalwijk part of?
Heracles vs Waalwijk is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 32) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 49% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Heracles and Waalwijk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Heracles vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Heracles's last 31 games and Waalwijk's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.92
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.33
1.39
Waalwijk xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
4%
26.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Heracles vs Waalwijk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Heracles and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Heracles and 1.39 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles come into this having played 65 games, going 33W 8D 24L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.02 PPG from 65 outings (17W 15D 33L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Heracles carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Heracles's home form reads 20W 5D 7L across their last 32 home games, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.59 points per game from their last 32 away games (4W 7D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Waalwijk's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.25 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
Heracles (Home) vs Waalwijk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Heracles
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Heracles vs Waalwijk Form FAQs
What form are Heracles and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 33W 8D 24L in their last 65 games (1.65 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 17W 15D 33L in their last 65 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Waalwijk away?
Heracles's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.03 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 May 2024, when Waalwijk won Heracles 0-5 Waalwijk.
Heracles's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Heracles
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Heracles vs Waalwijk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Waalwijk?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Heracles have won 3, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Waalwijk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Heracles 3-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Waalwijk?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 53%, Waalwijk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Heracles and 56% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Waalwijk in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Heracles vs Waalwijk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Heracles and Waalwijk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Heracles's recent matches and 50% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Heracles and Waalwijk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Heracles's matches and 56% of Waalwijk's.
Do Heracles and Waalwijk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Heracles's recent matches and 66% of Waalwijk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Heracles 0-5 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.94 xG and Waalwijk 1.39 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Waalwijk outscored their 1.39 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.00 / defence 1.21 against Waalwijk attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 49% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 26%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 71%, Waalwijk 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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