Heracles 1-0 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Utrecht at Erve Asito in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's home record at Erve Asito: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Utrecht — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heracles at 0.90 PPG versus Utrecht's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Heracles have won 0, Utrecht 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Utrecht winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Heracles in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Utrecht in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 52% versus Utrecht 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 43% | Utrecht 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.48 xG and Utrecht 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.009 / defence 1.091 | Utrecht attack 0.928 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.337. Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Heracles games / 21 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 40% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 34%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Utrecht 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 60% | Utrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 40% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Heracles 1.48 / Utrecht 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.009 / def 1.091 | Utrecht attack 0.928 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Heracles (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Utrecht xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Utrecht kick off?
Heracles vs Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Utrecht?
Heracles 1 - 0 Utrecht.
Where is Heracles vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Utrecht part of?
Heracles vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 40% chance of winning, Utrecht a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Heracles and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | Utrecht 1W.
What form are Heracles and Utrecht in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Heracles's attack rating (1.01) and Utrecht's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.83
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.83
1.35
Utrecht xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Heracles and 1.35 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 5D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utrecht sit at 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (10W 5D 6L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Heracles's home form reads 5W 3D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Utrecht have taken 1.10 points per game from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Utrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.86 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 5W 5D 11L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 10W 5D 6L in their last 21 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Utrecht away?
Heracles's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.80 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Heracles or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Utrecht in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and Utrecht runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Utrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Heracles
2
Draws
5
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 1, Utrecht have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Heracles 0-0 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 60%, Utrecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Heracles) and 70% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utrecht in 40%; Heracles have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Heracles's games and 50% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Heracles's matches and 70% of Utrecht's.
Do Heracles and Utrecht tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heracles edge out Utrecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Utrecht 1-0 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.48 xG and Utrecht 1.35 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.01 / defence 1.09 against Utrecht attack 0.93 / defence 1.29, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 40% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 34%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 43%, Utrecht 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Utrecht's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.