Heracles 1-3 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam meet at Erve Asito in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 May 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Heracles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 4W 4D 2L at Erve Asito — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Heracles, 0 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Heracles — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 46% versus Sparta Rotterdam 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Heracles 36% | Sparta Rotterdam 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.25 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.878 / defence 1.110 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.617 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.253. Sparta Rotterdam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Heracles games / 33 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 45% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Sparta Rotterdam 4.00. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heracles if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 45% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Heracles 1.25 / Sparta Rotterdam 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.878 / def 1.110 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.617 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Heracles (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Sparta Rotterdam xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Heracles 1 - 3 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 45% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 0W.
What form are Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Heracles's attack rating (0.88) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (0.62x) against Heracles's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.44
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.11
0.86
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Heracles and 0.86 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Heracles's recent record stands at 9W 7D 17L from 33 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 7W 11D 15L across 33 games — 0.97 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Heracles against 0.97 for Sparta Rotterdam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 7W 5D 4L from 16 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 3W 4D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.82 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Current Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 9W 7D 17L in their last 33 games (1.03 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 7W 11D 15L in their last 33 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Heracles's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.62 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heracles won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Heracles
3
Draws
3
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 2, Sparta Rotterdam have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 50%, Sparta Rotterdam 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Heracles) and 50% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Heracles have failed to score in 31% of games; Sparta Rotterdam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Heracles's recent matches and 38% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Heracles's recent games and 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Heracles 1-3 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.25 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.86 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.88 / defence 1.11 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.62 / defence 1.22, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 45% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Rotterdam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 36%, Sparta Rotterdam 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.03 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.