Heracles 2-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 21 as Heracles welcome Fortuna Sittard to Asito Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles at Asito Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Heracles) versus 1.20 (Fortuna Sittard). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heracles register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fortuna Sittard in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Heracles, 2 for Fortuna Sittard and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Heracles trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 61% versus Fortuna Sittard 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 63% | Fortuna Sittard 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.77 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.032 / defence 1.337 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.976 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.457. Data: 54 Heracles games / 54 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 36% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 42%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Fortuna Sittard 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 60% | Fortuna Sittard 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 36% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Heracles 1.77 / Fortuna Sittard 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.032 / def 1.337 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.976 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Fortuna Sittard xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Asito Stadium.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Heracles 2 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 36% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Heracles and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (7 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 3 | Fortuna Sittard 2W.
What form are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
36%
2.74
22%
4.61
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.67
1.90
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
5%
18.34
7%
13.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Heracles and 1.90 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Heracles have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 13W 13D 28L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard's form line: 18W 12D 24L from 54 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 0.96 PPG, Fortuna Sittard on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 4W 9D 13L from 26 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.24 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heracles have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 13W 13D 28L in their last 54 games (0.96 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 18W 12D 24L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Heracles's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.35 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2023, when Fortuna Sittard won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heracles
3
Draws
2
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Heracles 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Heracles at 73%, Fortuna Sittard at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Heracles) and 54% (Fortuna Sittard). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Heracles's games and 69% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Heracles's matches and 54% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Heracles and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heracles defy the odds to beat Fortuna Sittard 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Fortuna Sittard 2-1 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.77 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.90 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.03 / defence 1.34 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 36% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 42%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 63%, Fortuna Sittard 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 0.96 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.