Groningen 0-1 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Utrecht travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Euroborg this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Euroborg. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Groningen are significantly better at Euroborg than their overall form suggests.
Utrecht — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Utrecht away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Utrecht are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Groningen, 2 for Utrecht and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Utrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Utrecht in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 51% versus Utrecht 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | Utrecht 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.16 xG and Utrecht 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.869 / defence 1.015 | Utrecht attack 1.145 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.268. Data: 8 Groningen games / 41 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 28% | Draw 29% | Utrecht 43%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Utrecht 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 40% | Utrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 28% | Draw 29% | Utrecht 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Groningen 1.16 / Utrecht 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.869 / def 1.015 | Utrecht attack 1.145 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Utrecht xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Utrecht kick off?
Groningen vs Utrecht kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Utrecht?
Groningen 0 - 1 Utrecht.
Where is Groningen vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Utrecht part of?
Groningen vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 28% chance of winning, Utrecht a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Groningen and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Utrecht?
Record (4 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 2W.
What form are Groningen and Utrecht in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Utrecht (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Groningen vs Utrecht?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.87x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
28%
3.55
29%
3.45
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.63
1.47
Utrecht xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Groningen and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Groningen and 1.47 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 23W 11D 9L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht's form line: 20W 12D 11L from 43 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.86 PPG, Utrecht on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Groningen have posted 2.10 PPG from 20 outings (12W 6D 2L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 7W 7D 6L from 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.56 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 60%.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 23W 11D 9L in their last 43 games (1.86 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Utrecht away?
Groningen's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 2.10 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Groningen or Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Utrecht in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and Utrecht runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Groningen's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Groningen
1
Draws
5
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, Utrecht have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Groningen 1-2 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 45%, Utrecht 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Groningen) and 45% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Utrecht in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Groningen's recent matches and 55% of Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Groningen's matches and 45% of Utrecht's.
Do Groningen and Utrecht tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out Groningen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Groningen 0-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.16 xG and Utrecht 1.47 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Groningen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Utrecht attack 1.15 / defence 0.85, drawn from 8/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 28% | Draw 29% | Utrecht 43%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 58%, Utrecht 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Utrecht's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.86 PPG, Utrecht 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.