Groningen 1-1 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Twente (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Groningen face Twente.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 20 as Groningen welcome Twente to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 February 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen at Euroborg this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Twente — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Twente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Twente have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Twente are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Groningen, 2 for Twente and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Twente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Twente trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 62% versus Twente 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 55% | Twente 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.06 xG and Twente 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.870 / defence 1.332 | Twente attack 0.828 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.244. Data: 53 Groningen games / 53 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 26% | Draw 32% | Twente 41%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Twente 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Twente at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Twente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | Twente 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 26% | Draw 32% | Twente 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Groningen 1.06 / Twente 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.870 / def 1.332 | Twente attack 0.828 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Twente (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Twente xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Twente kick off?
Groningen vs Twente kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Twente?
Groningen 1 - 1 Twente.
Where is Groningen vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Twente part of?
Groningen vs Twente is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 26% chance of winning, Twente a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Groningen and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Twente?
Record (3 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 1 | Twente 2W.
What form are Groningen and Twente in?
Groningen (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Twente (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.87x the league average against Twente's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Twente's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
26%
3.79
32%
3.11
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.43
1.37
Twente xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.93
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Groningen and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Groningen and 1.37 for Twente, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Groningen have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 12W 12D 29L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Twente's form line: 30W 14D 9L from 53 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Twente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Twente are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Groningen have posted 0.96 PPG from 26 outings (6W 7D 13L).
On the road, Twente have gone 12W 7D 7L from 26 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Twente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.62 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Twente in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Twente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Twente in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 12W 12D 29L in their last 53 games (0.91 PPG), while Twente have gone 30W 14D 9L in their last 53 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Twente away?
Twente's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.96 PPG; Twente away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Groningen or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Twente in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and Twente runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2022, when Twente won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Twente specifically: 0W 4D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Groningen
4
Draws
4
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Twente?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, Twente have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Twente 2-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 58%, Twente 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Groningen) and 42% (Twente).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Twente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Groningen's games and 58% of Twente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Groningen's recent games and 42% of Twente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Twente tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Twente in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and Twente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 20, as Groningen and Twente drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.06 xG and Twente 1.37 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.87 / defence 1.33 against Twente attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 26% | Draw 32% | Twente 41%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 55%, Twente 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Twente's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.