Groningen 1-2 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Groningen face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees PSV Eindhoven travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Euroborg this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PSV Eindhoven have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven away from home this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 away games — 3.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. PSV Eindhoven's 2.80 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Groningen's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour PSV Eindhoven, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Groningen.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–4 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 49% versus PSV Eindhoven 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Groningen 47% | PSV Eindhoven 84%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.04 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.867 / defence 0.879 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.431 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.417. PSV Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Groningen games / 55 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 22% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 55%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | PSV Eindhoven 1.82. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 40% | PSV Eindhoven 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 22% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Groningen 1.04 / PSV Eindhoven 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.867 / def 0.879 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.431 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.78
PSV Eindhoven xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Groningen 1 - 2 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 22% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Groningen and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (7 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 6W.
What form are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.87x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
22%
4.54
23%
4.28
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.83
1.78
PSV Eindhoven xG
4.54
22%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
4%
26.94
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Groningen and 1.78 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 19W 13D 23L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 43W 6D 6L from 55 games, 2.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.67 PPG from 27 outings (12W 9D 6L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 22W 1D 4L from 27 away games — 2.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.04 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven in 67%.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 43W 6D 6L in their last 55 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.67 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when PSV Eindhoven won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Groningen
0
Draws
8
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PSV Eindhoven?
From 9 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 44%, PSV Eindhoven 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Groningen and 82% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Groningen's games and 70% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Groningen's matches and 82% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Groningen and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out Groningen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Groningen 1-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.04 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.78 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.43 / defence 0.73, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 22% | Draw 23% | PSV Eindhoven 55%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 47%, PSV Eindhoven 84%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.