Groningen 1-3 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees PSV Eindhoven travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Euroborg this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Euroborg. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PSV Eindhoven have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Groningen) versus 1.30 (PSV Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour PSV Eindhoven, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Groningen.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–5 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 48% versus PSV Eindhoven 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 51% | PSV Eindhoven 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.15 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.715 / defence 0.733 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.445 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.335. Groningen's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.445 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Groningen's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Groningen games / 61 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 30% | Draw 27% | PSV Eindhoven 43%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | PSV Eindhoven 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Groningen 20% | PSV Eindhoven 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 30% | Draw 27% | PSV Eindhoven 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Groningen 1.15 / PSV Eindhoven 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.715 / def 0.733 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.445 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.41
PSV Eindhoven xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Groningen 1 - 3 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 30% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Groningen and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (5 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 4W.
What form are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.71x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
30%
3.29
27%
3.75
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.56
1.41
PSV Eindhoven xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
13.51
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Groningen and 1.41 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 28W 16D 17L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 47W 8D 6L from 61 games, 2.44 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Groningen have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (17W 9D 4L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 21W 4D 5L from 30 away games — 2.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.10 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; PSV Eindhoven in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 28W 16D 17L in their last 61 games (1.64 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 47W 8D 6L in their last 61 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 2.00 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Groningen or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2023, when PSV Eindhoven won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Groningen
0
Draws
8
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PSV Eindhoven?
From 9 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 37%, PSV Eindhoven 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Groningen and 77% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; PSV Eindhoven in 40%; Groningen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play PSV Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Groningen's recent matches and 57% of PSV Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Groningen's matches and 77% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Groningen and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Groningen 1-3 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.15 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.41 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.71 / defence 0.73 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.45 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 30% | Draw 27% | PSV Eindhoven 43%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 51%, PSV Eindhoven 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.64. That form edge translated into the three points. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.